Viewing archive of Sunday, 18 August 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Aug 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 18/1131Z. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Aug, 20 Aug, 21 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 650 km/s at 17/2126Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4650 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (19 Aug), quiet to active levels on day two (20 Aug) and unsettled to active levels on day three (21 Aug). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (19 Aug, 20 Aug, 21 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton25%25%25%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Aug 126
  Predicted   19 Aug-21 Aug 130/125/120
  90 Day Mean        18 Aug 113

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Aug  009/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Aug  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug  006/005-010/018-018/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%25%45%
Minor storm01%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%10%
Minor storm35%35%35%
Major-severe storm25%30%55%

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