Viewing archive of Saturday, 17 August 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Aug 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
17/1824Z from Region 1818 (S07W33). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Aug, 19 Aug,
20 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
812 km/s at 17/0521Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 4301 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (18 Aug), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (19 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (20 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Aug to 20 Aug
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Aug 125 Predicted 18 Aug-20 Aug 130/130/120 90 Day Mean 17 Aug 113
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug 027/028 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Aug 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug 007/008-008/008-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug to 20 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 35% |
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