Viewing archive of Friday, 16 August 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Aug 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
15/2216Z from Region 1817 (S21W44). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Aug, 18 Aug,
19 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 860 km/s at 16/1145Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 15/2349Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 16/0244Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1355
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (18 Aug, 19 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Aug to 19 Aug
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Aug 120 Predicted 17 Aug-19 Aug 125/130/130 90 Day Mean 16 Aug 114
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug 015/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Aug 017/023 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug 012/015-011/012-008/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug to 19 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 30% | 15% |
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