Viewing archive of Monday, 12 August 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Aug 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 12/1041Z from Region 1817 (S23E07). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug, 15 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 412 km/s at 11/2148Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 12/2042Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 12/2041Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 783 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (13 Aug, 14 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (15 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Aug to 15 Aug
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Aug 114
  Predicted   13 Aug-15 Aug 115/120/120
  90 Day Mean        12 Aug 114

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug  007/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Aug  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug  007/008-006/005-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug to 15 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%05%15%
Minor storm05%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%15%25%
Major-severe storm20%05%25%

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