Viewing archive of Sunday, 11 August 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Aug 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Aug 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 11/1932Z from Region 1817 (S22E22). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Aug, 13 Aug, 14 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 464 km/s at 10/2254Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 10/2129Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 11/1013Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 646 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 Aug) and quiet levels on days two and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Aug to 14 Aug
Class M 10%10%10%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Aug 110
  Predicted    12 Aug-14 Aug 115/120/120
  90 Day Mean        11 Aug 115

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Aug  007/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Aug  006/006
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug  007/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Aug to 14 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%05%05%
Minor storm 05%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 20%15%15%
Major-severe storm 20%10%05%

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