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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Aug 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Aug, 12 Aug, 13 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 515 km/s at 09/2242Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 10/1224Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 10/1158Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1078 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (11 Aug), quiet to active levels on day two (12 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (13 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Aug to 13 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Aug 103
  Predicted   11 Aug-13 Aug 105/100/100
  90 Day Mean        10 Aug 115

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug  011/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Aug  007/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug  016/025-011/012-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug to 13 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%20%05%
Minor storm20%05%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%15%
Major-severe storm60%25%10%

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