Viewing archive of Friday, 2 August 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Aug 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Aug,
04 Aug, 05 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 360 km/s at
02/0100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 791 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Aug), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (04 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (05 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Aug to 05 Aug
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Aug 113 Predicted 03 Aug-05 Aug 115/110/110 90 Day Mean 02 Aug 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug 009/010-008/008-007/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug to 05 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 25% | 25% |
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