Viewing archive of Wednesday, 31 July 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jul 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 30/2219Z from Region 1809 (N12E65). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Aug, 02 Aug, 03 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 437 km/s at 31/0433Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 31/0340Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 31/1631Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 852 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (01 Aug), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (02 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (03 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Aug to 03 Aug
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 Jul 109
  Predicted   01 Aug-03 Aug 105/105/105
  90 Day Mean        31 Jul 118

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Jul  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug  006/005-006/008-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug to 03 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%30%
Minor storm01%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%25%30%
Major-severe storm10%25%40%

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