Viewing archive of Wednesday, 24 July 2013

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jul 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 24/1819Z from Region 1800 (S09W18). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Jul, 26 Jul, 27 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 373 km/s at 24/0050Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1905 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (25 Jul), quiet to active levels on day two (26 Jul) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (27 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jul to 27 Jul
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Jul 108
  Predicted   25 Jul-27 Jul 105/105/105
  90 Day Mean        24 Jul 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Jul  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul  005/005-009/012-013/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul to 27 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%25%40%
Minor storm01%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm20%30%25%
Major-severe storm10%35%55%

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