Viewing archive of Thursday, 18 July 2013

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jul 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 199 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jul 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 18/1823Z from Region 1800 (S10E63). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Jul, 20 Jul, 21 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 560 km/s at 18/1732Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 18/1345Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 18/1300Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2285 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (19 Jul, 20 Jul) and unsettled to active levels on day three (21 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jul to 21 Jul
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Jul 115
  Predicted   19 Jul-21 Jul 120/125/125
  90 Day Mean        18 Jul 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jul  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Jul  010/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul  013/020-013/020-011/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jul to 21 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active45%45%35%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm25%25%30%
Major-severe storm65%65%50%

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