Viewing archive of Friday, 12 July 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jul 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
12/1733Z from Region 1785 (S11W68). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (13 Jul, 14 Jul)
and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day
three (15 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
525 km/s at 12/1808Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 12/1631Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 12/0138Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 22470 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (13 Jul, 14
Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (15 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jul to 15 Jul
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jul 118 Predicted 13 Jul-15 Jul 110/110/105 90 Day Mean 12 Jul 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul 015/025 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul 010/015-018/025-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul to 15 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 65% | 50% |
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