Viewing archive of Friday, 12 July 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jul 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 12/1733Z from Region 1785 (S11W68). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (13 Jul, 14 Jul) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (15 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 525 km/s at 12/1808Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 12/1631Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 12/0138Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 22470 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (13 Jul, 14 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (15 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jul to 15 Jul
Class M 10%10%05%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Jul 118
  Predicted    13 Jul-15 Jul 110/110/105
  90 Day Mean        12 Jul 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul  015/025
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Jul  008/008
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul  010/015-018/025-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul to 15 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%30%
Minor storm 15%30%15%
Major-severe storm 01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%15%
Minor storm 30%25%30%
Major-severe storm 40%65%50%

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