Viewing archive of Wednesday, 26 June 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jun 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
26/0017Z from Region 1776 (N11, L = 253). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (27 Jun) and expected to
be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for
an M-class flare on days two and three (28 Jun, 29 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 507 km/s at
25/2130Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 17677 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (27 Jun, 28
Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (29 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jun to 29 Jun
| Class M | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jun 107 Predicted 27 Jun-29 Jun 100/105/105 90 Day Mean 26 Jun 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun 009/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jun 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun 011/015-014/017-008/009
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun to 29 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 50% | 20% |
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