Viewing archive of Wednesday, 26 June 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jun 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 26/0017Z from Region 1776 (N11, L = 253). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (27 Jun) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (28 Jun, 29 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 507 km/s at 25/2130Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 17677 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (27 Jun, 28 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (29 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jun to 29 Jun
Class M15%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Jun 107
  Predicted   27 Jun-29 Jun 100/105/105
  90 Day Mean        26 Jun 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun  009/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Jun  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun  011/015-014/017-008/009

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun to 29 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%35%15%
Minor storm10%20%05%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%15%
Minor storm25%30%25%
Major-severe storm40%50%20%

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