Viewing archive of Tuesday, 18 June 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jun 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 18/0207Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Jun, 20 Jun, 21 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 344 km/s at 18/0841Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 17/2106Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 18/1243Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 427 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (19 Jun, 20 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (21 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jun to 21 Jun
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Jun 125
  Predicted   19 Jun-21 Jun 125/125/125
  90 Day Mean        18 Jun 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Jun  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun  005/005-006/005-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun to 21 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%20%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%25%
Major-severe storm15%15%25%

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