Viewing archive of Monday, 17 June 2013

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jun 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 17/0812Z from Region 1772 (S20E15). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Jun, 19 Jun, 20 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 360 km/s at 17/0427Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 16/2110Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 16/2308Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 505 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (18 Jun, 19 Jun, 20 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jun to 20 Jun
Class M20%20%20%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Jun 124
  Predicted   18 Jun-20 Jun 125/130/130
  90 Day Mean        17 Jun 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Jun  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun  006/005-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun to 20 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%10%
Minor storm01%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%25%20%
Major-severe storm15%20%15%

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