Viewing archive of Tuesday, 11 June 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jun 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 162 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jun 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Jun, 13 Jun, 14 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 432 km/s at 11/0408Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 11/1638Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 11/1125Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 943 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 Jun, 13 Jun, 14 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jun to 14 Jun
Class M 05%05%05%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Jun 090
  Predicted    12 Jun-14 Jun 095/095/100
  90 Day Mean        11 Jun 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jun  012/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Jun  004/005
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 12 Jun-14 Jun  005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jun to 14 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm 01%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 20%20%20%
Major-severe storm 15%15%15%

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