Viewing archive of Wednesday, 29 May 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 May 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 149 Issued at 2200Z on 29 May 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
29/0218Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 May,
31 May, 01 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 632 km/s at
28/2350Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 38236 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (30 May, 31 May) and quiet to
active levels on day three (01 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 30 May to 01 Jun
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 May 107 Predicted 30 May-01 Jun 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 29 May 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 May 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 May 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 May-01 Jun 005/005-005/005-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 May to 01 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 25% |
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