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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 May 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 147 Issued at 2200Z on 27 May 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 26/2147Z from Region 1756 (S20W26). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 May, 29 May, 30 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 805 km/s at 27/1737Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 27/1116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 27/1117Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 58767 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (28 May) and quiet levels on days two and three (29 May, 30 May).
III. Event Probabilities 28 May to 30 May
Class M 15%15%15%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 May 110
  Predicted    28 May-30 May 110/110/110
  90 Day Mean        27 May 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 May  019/019
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 May  012/014
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May  007/008-004/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 May to 30 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm 01%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 20%20%20%
Major-severe storm 20%10%10%

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