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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 May 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 146 Issued at 2200Z on 26 May 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 26/0957Z from Region 1756 (S20W13). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 May, 28 May, 29 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 849 km/s at 25/2207Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 25/2258Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 26/0615Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 25/2115Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 11636 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (27 May, 28 May) and quiet levels on day three (29 May).
III. Event Probabilities 27 May to 29 May
Class M 25%25%25%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 May 120
  Predicted    27 May-29 May 120/120/120
  90 Day Mean        26 May 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 May  025/040
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 May  016/018
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 27 May-29 May  010/010-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 May to 29 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%10%
Minor storm 05%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 25%20%20%
Major-severe storm 25%20%10%

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