Viewing archive of Saturday, 25 May 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 May 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 145 Issued at 2200Z on 25 May 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 25/1049Z from Region 1755 (N11E12). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 May, 27 May, 28 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 725 km/s at 25/2100Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 25/2040Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 25/2048Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 16 pfu at 24/2110Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 943 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (26 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (27 May, 28 May).
III. Event Probabilities 26 May to 28 May
Class M 25%25%25%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 May 121
  Predicted    26 May-28 May 120/120/125
  90 Day Mean        25 May 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 May  017/023
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 May  020/029
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 26 May-28 May  015/020-010/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 May to 28 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%20%10%
Minor storm 15%05%01%
Major-severe storm 05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 30%25%20%
Major-severe storm 50%25%20%

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