Viewing archive of Friday, 24 May 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 May 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 24/0124Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 May, 26 May, 27 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 621 km/s at 24/2058Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 24/1739Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 24/1738Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 368 pfu at 23/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2063 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (26 May, 27 May). Protons are likely to continue above threshold levels on day one (25 May), have a chance of remaining above threshold on day two (26 May) and have a slight chance of remaining above threshold on day three (27 May).
III. Event Probabilities 25 May to 27 May
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton60%30%10%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 May 127
  Predicted   25 May-27 May 130/125/125
  90 Day Mean        24 May 122

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 May  008/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 May  014/019
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May  014/022-008/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May to 27 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%20%10%
Minor storm20%05%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm30%25%20%
Major-severe storm55%25%20%

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