Viewing archive of Sunday, 19 May 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 May 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 19/1750Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 May, 21 May, 22 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 446 km/s at 19/0021Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 18/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 18/2258Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7 pfu at 18/2130Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (20 May), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (21 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (22 May). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (20 May, 21 May, 22 May).
III. Event Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
Class M 65%65%65%
Class X 25%25%25%
Proton25%25%25%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 May 135
  Predicted    20 May-22 May 135/130/125
  90 Day Mean        19 May 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 May  016/024
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 May  014/020
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May  019/030-007/008-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%15%30%
Minor storm 30%05%10%
Major-severe storm 20%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%15%15%
Minor storm 20%25%30%
Major-severe storm 75%25%40%

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