Viewing archive of Sunday, 19 May 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 May 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
19/1750Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 May, 21
May, 22 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
446 km/s at 19/0021Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 18/2101Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 18/2258Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7 pfu at
18/2130Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (20 May), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (21 May) and quiet to active levels on day
three (22 May). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (20 May, 21 May, 22 May).
III. Event Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 May 135 Predicted 20 May-22 May 135/130/125 90 Day Mean 19 May 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 May 016/024 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May 014/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May 019/030-007/008-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 75% | 25% | 40% |
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