Viewing archive of Thursday, 16 May 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 May 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 16/1924Z from Region 1748 (N12E36). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be high with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 May, 18 May, 19 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 450 km/s at 15/2326Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 15/2115Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 16/0139Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 32 pfu at 16/0410Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 117 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (18 May, 19 May). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (17 May), are expected to cross threshold on day two (18 May) and are expected to cross threshold on day three (19 May).
III. Event Probabilities 17 May to 19 May
Class M75%75%75%
Class X50%50%50%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 May 145
  Predicted   17 May-19 May 145/145/140
  90 Day Mean        16 May 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 May  010/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 May  010/011
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May  011/015-008/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May to 19 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm30%25%25%
Major-severe storm40%25%25%

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