Viewing archive of Thursday, 16 May 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 May 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 16/1924Z from Region 1748 (N12E36). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be high with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 May, 18 May, 19 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 450 km/s at 15/2326Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 15/2115Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 16/0139Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 32 pfu at 16/0410Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 117 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (18 May, 19 May). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (17 May), are expected to cross threshold on day two (18 May) and are expected to cross threshold on day three (19 May).
III. Event Probabilities 17 May to 19 May
Class M 75%75%75%
Class X 50%50%50%
Proton99%95%90%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 May 145
  Predicted    17 May-19 May 145/145/140
  90 Day Mean        16 May 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 May  010/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 May  010/011
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May  011/015-008/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May to 19 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%15%15%
Minor storm 10%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 30%25%25%
Major-severe storm 40%25%25%

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

100%

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare:2017/09/10X8.2
Last M-flare:2017/10/20M1.0
Last geomagnetic storm:2019/08/05Kp5 (G1)
Number of spotless days in 2019:164
Current stretch spotless days:19

This day in history*

Solar flares
12001X5.3
22005M6.4
32014M3.9
41999M3.6
52014M2.0
ApG
1200522G1
2200320G1
3201018G1
4199616
5199515
*since 1994

Social networks