Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 May 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 May 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 15/0148Z from Region 1748 (N11E51). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be high on days one, two, and three (16 May, 17 May, 18 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 457 km/s at 15/1605Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 15/1317Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 15/1124Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 23 pfu at 15/1850Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (16 May, 18 May) and quiet to active levels on day two (17 May). Protons are expected to cross threshold on days one, two, and three (16 May, 17 May, 18 May).
III. Event Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
Class M80%80%80%
Class X60%60%60%
Proton99%90%90%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 May 146
  Predicted   16 May-18 May 145/145/145
  90 Day Mean        15 May 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 May  007/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 May  007/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May  006/008-011/015-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%30%15%
Minor storm05%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%25%
Major-severe storm25%40%25%

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