Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 May 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 May 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
15/0148Z from Region 1748 (N11E51). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be high on
days one, two, and three (16 May, 17 May, 18 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
457 km/s at 15/1605Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 15/1317Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 15/1124Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 23 pfu at
15/1850Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (16 May, 18
May) and quiet to active levels on day two (17 May). Protons are
expected to cross threshold on days one, two, and three (16 May, 17 May,
18 May).
III. Event Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Proton | 99% | 90% | 90% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 May 146 Predicted 16 May-18 May 145/145/145 90 Day Mean 15 May 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 May 007/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 May 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May 006/008-011/015-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 40% | 25% |
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