Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 May 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 May 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X3 event observed at 14/0111Z from Region 1748 (N11E63). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 May, 16 May, 17 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 432 km/s at 14/1129Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 14/1806Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 14/1128Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 213 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 May), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (16 May) and quiet levels on day three (17 May). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (15 May), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (16 May) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (17 May).
III. Event Probabilities 15 May to 17 May
Class M 80%80%80%
Class X 50%50%50%
Proton20%30%40%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 May 148
  Predicted    15 May-17 May 145/145/140
  90 Day Mean        14 May 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 May  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 May  005/005
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May  010/012-006/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May to 17 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%15%10%
Minor storm 05%05%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 30%25%20%
Major-severe storm 30%25%10%

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