Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 May 2013

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 May 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X3 event observed at 14/0111Z from Region 1748 (N11E63). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 May, 16 May, 17 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 432 km/s at 14/1129Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 14/1806Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 14/1128Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 213 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 May), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (16 May) and quiet levels on day three (17 May). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (15 May), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (16 May) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (17 May).
III. Event Probabilities 15 May to 17 May
Class M80%80%80%
Class X50%50%50%
Proton20%30%40%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 May 148
  Predicted   15 May-17 May 145/145/140
  90 Day Mean        14 May 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 May  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 May  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May  010/012-006/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May to 17 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%15%10%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%25%20%
Major-severe storm30%25%10%

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