Viewing archive of Saturday, 11 May 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 May 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 11/1948Z from Region 1746 (S27E63). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 May, 13 May, 14 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 439 km/s at 10/2122Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 551 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (12 May, 13 May) and quiet levels on day three (14 May).
III. Event Probabilities 12 May to 14 May
Class M45%45%45%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 May 137
  Predicted   12 May-14 May 130/125/125
  90 Day Mean        11 May 117

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 May  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 May  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May  005/008-007/008-003/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 May to 14 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%15%
Major-severe storm25%25%10%

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