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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 May 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 10/0057Z from Region 1745 (N11E73). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 May, 12 May, 13 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 497 km/s at 09/2346Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 601 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (11 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (12 May, 13 May).
III. Event Probabilities 11 May to 13 May
Class M40%45%45%
Class X05%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 May 125
  Predicted   11 May-13 May 125/125/125
  90 Day Mean        10 May 117

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 May  004/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 May  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May  005/005-005/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May to 13 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm15%25%25%
Major-severe storm10%25%25%

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