Viewing archive of Thursday, 2 May 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 May 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
02/0510Z from Region 1731 (N09W31). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 May, 04 May,
05 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
509 km/s at 02/0007Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 01/2101Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 01/2101Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 759 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (03 May, 04 May)
and quiet to active levels on day three (05 May).
III. Event Probabilities 03 May to 05 May
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 May 149 Predicted 03 May-05 May 155/155/150 90 Day Mean 02 May 115
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 May 016/028 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 May 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May 007/008-008/008-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May to 05 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 25% |
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