Viewing archive of Tuesday, 30 April 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Apr 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 29/2201Z from Region 1731 (N09E11). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 May, 02 May, 03 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 451 km/s at 30/1415Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 30/1402Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 30/0940Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1972 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and three (01 May, 03 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (02 May).
III. Event Probabilities 01 May to 03 May
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Apr 154
  Predicted   01 May-03 May 155/160/165
  90 Day Mean        30 Apr 114

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Apr  007/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May  004/005-006/008-004/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May to 03 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%05%
Minor storm01%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%25%10%
Major-severe storm10%20%05%

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