Viewing archive of Monday, 29 April 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Apr 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 119 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 29/2032Z from Region 1730 (S18W20). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Apr, 01 May, 02 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 450 km/s at 28/2332Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1591 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (30 Apr, 02 May) and quiet levels on day two (01 May).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Apr to 02 May
Class M35%35%35%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Apr 142
  Predicted   30 Apr-02 May 140/145/145
  90 Day Mean        29 Apr 113

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Apr  004/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May  008/008-004/005-006/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr to 02 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%15%
Minor storm05%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%15%25%
Major-severe storm20%10%20%

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