Viewing archive of Sunday, 28 April 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Apr 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 118 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Apr 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
28/2017Z from Region 1733 (S17W42) and it was accompanied by Type II
(576 km/s) and Type IV radio emissions. There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Apr, 30 Apr,
01 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 466 km/s at
27/2157Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 28/1238Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 28/1249Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2698 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (29 Apr, 01 May) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (30 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Apr to 01 May
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Apr 132 Predicted 29 Apr-01 May 130/130/130 90 Day Mean 28 Apr 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Apr 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Apr 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Apr-01 May 004/005-003/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Apr to 01 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 20% | 10% |
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