Viewing archive of Thursday, 18 April 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Apr 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 108 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Apr 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 18/1823Z from Region 1719 (N09W91). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (19 Apr) and likely to be low on day two (20 Apr) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (21 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 359 km/s at 18/1408Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 126 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (19 Apr, 20 Apr, 21 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Apr to 21 Apr
Class M10%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Apr 105
  Predicted   19 Apr-21 Apr 095/090/090
  90 Day Mean        18 Apr 111

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Apr  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Apr  002/002
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Apr-21 Apr  006/005-005/005-004/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Apr to 21 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

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