Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 April 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Apr 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 106 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 16/1646Z from Region 1719 (N09W64). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Apr, 18 Apr, 19 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 420 km/s at 16/0041Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 15/2247Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 15/2121Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (17 Apr, 18 Apr, 19 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Apr to 19 Apr
Class M 15%15%15%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Apr 113
  Predicted    17 Apr-19 Apr 105/100/100
  90 Day Mean        16 Apr 111

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Apr  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Apr  003/003
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr  005/005-004/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Apr to 19 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm 01%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 15%15%15%
Major-severe storm 05%10%10%

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