Viewing archive of Monday, 15 April 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Apr 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 15/1403Z from Region 1723 (S18E20). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day one (16 Apr) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day two (17 Apr) and likely to be low on day three (18 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 541 km/s at 14/2245Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 14/2153Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 15/2058Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (16 Apr, 17 Apr, 18 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Apr to 18 Apr
Class M25%15%05%
Class X05%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Apr 113
  Predicted   16 Apr-18 Apr 110/105/100
  90 Day Mean        15 Apr 112

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr  010/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Apr  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr  005/005-005/005-004/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr to 18 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm10%05%10%

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