Viewing archive of Saturday, 13 April 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Apr 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
13/0334Z from Region 1718 (N21W58). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (14 Apr, 15 Apr) and expected to be low with a chance
for M-class flares on day three (16 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 501 km/s at
12/2336Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 12/2240Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 13/0036Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10 pfu at 12/2205Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 268 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (14 Apr) and quiet
levels on days two and three (15 Apr, 16 Apr). Protons greater than 10
Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (14 Apr) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (15 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Apr to 16 Apr
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 30% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Apr 125 Predicted 14 Apr-16 Apr 120/120/115 90 Day Mean 13 Apr 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Apr 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Apr 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr 028/045-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr to 16 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 45% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 20% | 10% |
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