Viewing archive of Tuesday, 9 April 2013

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Apr 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 99 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 09/0859Z from Region 1718 (N21W06). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Apr, 11 Apr, 12 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 389 km/s at 09/0010Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 09/1823Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 09/1446Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 353 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (10 Apr, 11 Apr, 12 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Apr to 12 Apr
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Apr 147
  Predicted   10 Apr-12 Apr 150/150/145
  90 Day Mean        09 Apr 114

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr  004/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Apr  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr  006/007-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr to 12 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%15%15%
Major-severe storm20%10%10%

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