Viewing archive of Saturday, 6 April 2013

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Apr 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 96 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 06/1142Z from Region 1718 (N22E33). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Apr, 08 Apr, 09 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 379 km/s at 06/1415Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 06/0305Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 06/0517Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1473 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (07 Apr, 08 Apr, 09 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Apr to 09 Apr
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Apr 137
  Predicted   07 Apr-09 Apr 138/138/135
  90 Day Mean        06 Apr 114

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr  003/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Apr  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr  007/008-006/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr to 09 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm30%30%25%

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