Viewing archive of Saturday, 23 March 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Mar 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 82 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low on day
one (24 Mar) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class
flares on days two and three (25 Mar, 26 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
429 km/s at 23/2045Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 23/1912Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 23/1838Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2379 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (24 Mar, 25 Mar, 26
Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Mar to 26 Mar
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Mar 098 Predicted 24 Mar-26 Mar 095/090/090 90 Day Mean 23 Mar 115
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Mar 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar to 26 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/04/16 | Kp5 (G1) |
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