Viewing archive of Friday, 22 March 2013

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Mar 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 81 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 21/2204Z from Region 1692 (N09W85). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Mar, 24 Mar, 25 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 494 km/s at 22/0239Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 21/2133Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 22/1709Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3877 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 Mar) and quiet levels on days two and three (24 Mar, 25 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Mar to 25 Mar
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Mar 101
  Predicted   23 Mar-25 Mar 100/095/090
  90 Day Mean        22 Mar 116

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar  011/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Mar  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar  009/008-004/005-004/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar to 25 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%01%01%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%10%10%
Major-severe storm20%05%05%

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