Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 March 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Mar 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 75 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
16/0539Z from Region 1698 (S19W57). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (17
Mar, 18 Mar, 19 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
551 km/s at 16/0506Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 16/0257Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 16/0309Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12 pfu at
16/2015Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (17 Mar), quiet to
active levels on day two (18 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (19
Mar). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (17 Mar), are
likely to cross threshold on day two (18 Mar) and have a chance of
crossing threshold on day three (19 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 75% | 60% | 25% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Mar 126 Predicted 17 Mar-19 Mar 125/120/115 90 Day Mean 16 Mar 116
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar 028/039-014/020-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 40% | 05% |
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