Viewing archive of Sunday, 17 February 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Feb 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 48 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 17/1550Z from Region 1675 (N12E18). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels on days one, two, and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb, 20 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 403 km/s at 16/2302Z. Total IMF reached 9.5 nT at 16/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7.3 nT at 17/1417Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels for the next three days (18 Feb, 19 Feb, 20 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Feb to 20 Feb
Class M 15%15%15%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Feb 106
  Predicted    18 Feb-20 Feb 110/110/110
  90 Day Mean        17 Feb 116

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb  006/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Feb  008/008
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb  006/008-007/008-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb to 20 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%20%30%
Minor storm 01%05%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%15%
Minor storm 15%25%20%
Major-severe storm 10%25%15%

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