Viewing archive of Sunday, 18 November 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Nov 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
18/0407Z from Region 1615 (N07W34). Consolidation and moderate growth
was observed in Region 1619 (N10E03) which occasionally displayed
beta-gamma magnetic characteristics. There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov, 21 Nov) with a
chance for isolated moderate activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
at ACE reached 451 km/s at 18/1301Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 18/2028Z.
The maximum southward component of Bz remained between +/- 4 nT during
the period. A new coronal hole was identified in the southern hemisphere
near center disk. Greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak of 1512 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at mostly quiet levels for the next three days (19 Nov, 20 Nov, 21
Nov) with the exception of a possible unsettled period late on 19 Nov or
early on 20 Nov with the arrival of a weak coronal hole high speed solar
wind stream.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Nov to 21 Nov
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Nov 141 Predicted 19 Nov-21 Nov 140/140/135 90 Day Mean 18 Nov 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Nov 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov 006/006-007/007-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov to 21 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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