Viewing archive of Friday, 9 November 2012

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Nov 09 2310 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

::::: CORRECTED COPY ::::: SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 09/0151Z which was associated with a non-earth directed CME that originated from a region behind the east limb. There was a second CME observed begining at 09/1524Z which was associated with a filament eruption in the southeast quadrant of the disk. Analysis of the second CME is still ongoing. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Nov, 11 Nov, 12 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 407 km/s at 08/2216Z. There was a weak enhancement of greater than 10 MeV protons at geosynchronous orbit in response to the full halo, backsided CME that occurred yesterday. The peak flux level was 2 pfu at 09/0420Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels for the next three days (10 Nov, 11 Nov, 12 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Nov to 12 Nov
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Nov 115
  Predicted   10 Nov-12 Nov 120/125/130
  90 Day Mean        09 Nov 117

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Nov  002/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov  007/007-007/007-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov to 12 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

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