Viewing archive of Monday, 5 November 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Nov 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest event was a C2
flare at 05/1839Z from an unnumbered region around the southeast
limb. New Regions 1607 (N12W47) and 1608 (S20E62) were numbered and
both appear to be unipolar spot groups. The remaining spot groups
were quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs (coronal mass
ejections) were observed during the reporting period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (06-08
November).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Nov to 08 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Nov 097 Predicted 06 Nov-08 Nov 105/110/110 90 Day Mean 05 Nov 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov to 08 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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