Viewing archive of Thursday, 18 October 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Oct 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. The x-ray background remained steady at B4 for the duration of the period. Newly numbered Region 1596 (N11E73) is a ~300 millionths E-type group and is the most prominent region on the disk. New Region 1597 (S21W30) emerged as a small bi-polar region. The other regions on the disk were stable or decaying.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an isolated M-class event during the next three days (19 - 21 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed measured at the ACE spacecraft gradually increased from around 500 km/s to the end-of-day value around 600 km/s. These signatures are consistent with a high speed stream from a negative polarity coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet with a chance for an isolated unsettled period for the next two days (19 - 20 Oct). The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled on 21 Oct due to a high speed stream associated with a negative polarity coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Oct to 21 Oct
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Oct 138
  Predicted   19 Oct-21 Oct  140/140/140
  90 Day Mean        18 Oct 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Oct  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct  006/006-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct to 21 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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