Viewing archive of Saturday, 13 October 2012

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Oct 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 1589 (N13E22) is the most magnetically complex spot group on the visible disk with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the reporting period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for X-class flares during the forecast period (14-16 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels with major to severe storm periods observed at high latitudes. The period began with quiet to unsettled conditions through 13/0300Z. A sustained period of southward Bz to -11 nT for approximately 13 hours resulted in active to minor storm conditions with major to severe storm periods at high latitudes. At about 13/0650Z, the phi angle changed from a negative (toward) orientation to a positive (away) orientation, indicating a solar sector boundary crossing. This was followed by increases in density, temperature, and solar wind speed indicative of a co-rotating interaction region in advance of a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). By 13/1618Z, solar wind speed increased from approximately 530 km/s to 590 km/s while the total magnetic field (Bt) decreased to 5 nT as the CH HSS became geoeffective. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at unsettled to active levels with a chance for isolated minor storm periods on day 1 (14 October). Mostly unsettled conditions are expected on day 2 (15 October) due to persistence. By day 3 (16 October), quiet to unsettled conditions are expected as coronal hole effects wane. On days 2-3, there is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit as Region 1589 rotates into a more geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
Class M35%35%35%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Oct 125
  Predicted   14 Oct-16 Oct  125/130/130
  90 Day Mean        13 Oct 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct  012/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Oct  025/036
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct  016/018-011/012-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%15%
Minor storm20%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%20%
Major-severe storm55%40%20%

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