Viewing archive of Friday, 12 October 2012

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Oct 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1589 (N13E35) was responsible for several low level C-flares and a C9/1f flare at 12/0820Z. Region 1589 continues to maintain its Beta-Gamma magnetic classification. New region 1591 (N07E71) rotated onto the disk as a bipolar D-type group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-flare during the forecast period (13-15 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed, measured at the ACE spacecraft, ranged between approximately 450 and 550 km/s. Prolonged periods of southward Bz (near -5 nT) coupled with enhanced wind speed resulted in an isolated active period between 12/0300 - 0600Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (13 October). A coronal hole high speed stream is expected to become geoeffective on days 2-3 (14-15 October) resulting in quiet to unsettled conditions with a chance for active periods. On day 3, a slight chance exists for a greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit as Region 1589 rotates into a more geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Oct to 15 Oct
Class M35%35%35%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton01%05%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Oct 122
  Predicted   13 Oct-15 Oct  125/130/130
  90 Day Mean        12 Oct 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct  005/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Oct  012/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct  007/008-010/012-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct to 15 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%30%30%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%30%30%
Major-severe storm20%40%40%

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