Viewing archive of Wednesday, 10 October 2012

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Oct 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. A pair of M1 x-ray events were produced at 09/2331Z and 10/0504Z by a new region which has not yet rotated around the southeast limb. Region 1589 (N13E61) remains the largest and most complex group on the solar disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with the chance for moderate levels over the next three days (11-13 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field began the period at minor storm conditions, due to the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream coupled with residual and lingering CME effects. Mostly quiet conditions then followed and continued for the remainder of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active levels on day one (11 October) as coronal hole effects continue. Mostly quiet conditions are forecast for days two and three (12-13 October).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Oct to 13 Oct
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Oct 112
  Predicted   11 Oct-13 Oct  115/115/115
  90 Day Mean        10 Oct 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct  032/050
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Oct  009/011
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct  007/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct to 13 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%05%05%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%15%15%
Major-severe storm20%05%05%

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