Viewing archive of Tuesday, 9 October 2012

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Oct 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A few C-class events were observed during the period, most from a region around the southeast limb that has not yet rotated onto the disk. Three new regions were numbered today with Region 1589 (N13E75) as the largest and most active.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for an isolated M-class flare over the next three days (10-12 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field began the day at active levels before the onset of two major storm periods (09/00-06Z). This peak activity was then followed by a minor storm period before mostly quiet conditions prevailed for the remainder of the period. The increased activity was the result of residual effects from the CME on 05 October. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active on day one (10 October), due to high speed stream effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are forecast on day two (11 October) and mostly quiet levels are expected on day three (12 October).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Oct 106
  Predicted   10 Oct-12 Oct  105/105/100
  90 Day Mean        09 Oct 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct  021/040
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Oct  024/038
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct  012/015-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%15%05%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%15%
Major-severe storm40%20%05%

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