Viewing archive of Tuesday, 9 October 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Oct 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity was low. A few C-class events were
observed during the period, most from a region around the southeast
limb that has not yet rotated onto the disk. Three new regions were
numbered today with Region 1589 (N13E75) as the largest and most
active.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-class flare over the next three days
(10-12 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field began the day at active levels before the onset
of two major storm periods (09/00-06Z). This peak activity was then
followed by a minor storm period before mostly quiet conditions
prevailed for the remainder of the period. The increased activity
was the result of residual effects from the CME on 05 October. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active on day one (10 October), due to
high speed stream effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are
forecast on day two (11 October) and mostly quiet levels are
expected on day three (12 October).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Oct 106 Predicted 10 Oct-12 Oct 105/105/100 90 Day Mean 09 Oct 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct 021/040 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct 024/038 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct 012/015-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 20% | 05% |
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