Viewing archive of Monday, 8 October 2012

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Oct 08 2235 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2012 :::::::::::CORRECTED COPY:::::::::::::::::::

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. A M2 x-ray event occurred at 08/1117Z from a region that has not yet rotated around the east limb. Two CMEs were observed by LASCO C2/C3 coming off the east limb early in the period, however neither are expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low on day 1 (9 October). Activity is forecast to increase to low on day 2 (10 October) and low with the a chance for moderate levels on day 3 (11 October) as the new region emerges around the east limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field began the period at unsettled levels before the arrival of the CME from 05 October around 08/0445Z. At that time, a transient passage was observed at ACE and was then followed by a subsequent sudden impulse (21nT at Boulder) to Earths magnetic field at 08/0515Z. Conditions increased to active levels for a sole period, before major storm levels began and lasted for two periods (06-12Z). The remainder of the day saw a recovery back to unsettled and active levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is forecast to be at minor storm levels (G1) on day 1 (09 October) as CME effects continue. Days 2 and 3 (10-11 October) are forecast to be quiet to unsettled with possible isolated active levels persisting, due to a coronal hole that is expected to move into a potentially geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Oct to 11 Oct
Class M05%10%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Oct 103
  Predicted   09 Oct-11 Oct  100/100/100
  90 Day Mean        08 Oct 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Oct  024/035
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct  017/020-007/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct to 11 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%20%10%
Minor storm20%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm35%25%15%

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