Viewing archive of Sunday, 23 September 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Sep 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Sep 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event of
the period was a long duration C1 x-ray flare at 23/1556Z from an
area of enhanced emission located behind the east limb. Region 1577
(N08E30) indicated the most change during the period developing
numerous intermediate spots. The remaining regions were quiet and
stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity all three days
of the forecast period (24 - 26 September) as active regions are
expected to rotate onto the visible disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. ACE satellite
measurements indicated a steady decline in wind speed from about 400
km/s to near 350 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 4 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominately quiet levels all three days of the
forecast period (24 - 26 September).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Sep to 26 Sep
| Class M | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Sep 134 Predicted 24 Sep-26 Sep 135/140/145 90 Day Mean 23 Sep 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Sep 003/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Sep 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Sep-26 Sep 004/005-005/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Sep to 26 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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